Somewhat overshadowed by the Light Heavyweight title fight, the co-main event of the UFC 159 card has potential to be a memorable bout when Michael “The Count” Bisping takes on the Alan “The Talent” Belcher. Both will have a lot to prove as their campaigns to vie for the middleweight championship were derailed in their previous bouts; Belcher losing a war of attrition against Yushin Okami and Bisping stopped cold by Vitor Belfort. A win on Saturday will put either man back on track to get to the top of the middleweight mountain.

Both fighters have a Muay Thai based striking approach but each has their own preferred variants on this discipline that they bring into the cage. Bisping mixes western boxing more fluidly than his opponent, most notably in the utilisation of his jab and lateral movement. This stifles opponents from getting in close as he picks away at them from a distance whilst the footwork allows him to create angles that will dampen the effect of leg kicks. In his bout with the ever-tough Dan Miller, the effectiveness of this style could easily be seen as the accumulation of jabs told the story on Millers face after 15 minutes. When Bisping closes the gap however, he has demonstrated a high level double-neck tie and the ability to relentlessly deliver knees to both the body and head.

For Belcher, despite holding black belts in 5 martial arts disciplines, his style is more routed in a traditional Thai style, which translates to powerful strikes from the “8 limbs”. Under the tutelage coach Duke Roufus he has proven this by ending half of his 18 victories with (T)KO. It is in the grappling domain where Belcher will likely be most dangerous to the Brit, however. Largely under-rated as a Jiu Jitsu practitioner, Belcher opened the eyes of the world when he fought Rousimar Palhares. Palhares, largely revered and feared for his devastating leg locks is considered a specialist in the field. Belcher fended off several of these leg lock attempts and attempted his own even before sweeping the Brazilian and ending the fight with ground strikes. In doing so he demonstrated that he is indeed in the upper echelon of Brazilian Jiu jitsu black belts in the UFC, let alone his division.

Taking Bisping down however is by no means an easy task. Chael Sonnen could not manage to implement his usual grind-out, wear down style. Despite Sonnen emerging victorious, many felt that The Count should have been given the nod for his effective grappling defence. A more likely approach for Belcher to initiate a grappling battle, albeit a risky one, will be to allow Bisping to establish his Muay Thai Clinch. From this disadvantageous position the American could quickly shift the tides by pulling guard or by dropping to attempt leg locks or sweeps of his own.

This is a very evenly matched contest and one that many long-time fans are anticipating. The difference on the night may well come down who can win the mental battle during the three rounds. Irrespectively, the bout should be dynamic and technical affair as two of the best middleweights square off, with each having a lot to prove and desperate to increment the number in their records win column.

Personal Takes

Paul Anderson – Bisping has shown some gaps in his striking that have been open to exploitation with him being rocked a number of times past bouts. I think Belcher will be able to find his timing eventually and do the same and initiate his offensive grappling from his striking, ending the fight with a submission in the second round.

Fraser Ryan – This is by far the closest fight on the main card in my opinion. Belcher’s ground game will likely make Bisping think twice about going to the mat so I see this fight being more of a kickboxing contest. If the fight does play out this way Bisping should be able to apply his deliberate and calculated approach to come out on the winning side of a decision.

Newark, New Jersey plays host to UFC 159 this weekend as dominant Light-Heavyweight Champion Jon “Bones” Jones defends his title against MMA’s favourite heel Chael Sonnen. Let’s not beat around the bush here, this fight has about as much to do with sporting accomplishment as it does string theory. At its core this fight signifies the end of the long and drawn out saga of UFC 151. We all know the details by now and the story has been forever etched into the history books of the Ultimate Fighting Championship. This fight was essentially the last act of a desperate promotion trying its best to save one of its events. When that event was subsequently cancelled, so should Sonnen’s immediate title shot aspirations. But no, storylines were twisted, Sonnen kept talking, and talking, and talking until finally we ended up where we are now: on the brink of a light-heavyweight title fight to be contested by a man who may end up being the greatest fighter the sport has ever seen, and the best trash talker the sport has ever seen.

The best odds you will find for a Sonnen victory are around 3-1, but they stretch to 6-1 depending on how realistic the odds maker you use is. The fact that Jones has essentially ran through 5 of the divisions previous champions in his last five fights is a testament to how good the young champion is. He has faced his fair share of adversity during these fights as well; Machida tested the champion’s chin, and Belfort caught him in an extremely tight armbar. Now he will face a very stern test in the art of takedown defence. The thing is however, despite all the distain aimed at this fight, it does have the potential to be an intriguing affair. Sonnen’s gameplan is no secret, he is going to do his best to close the distance, drive his shoulder into Jones’ abdomen, lock his hands behind the champion’s legs and take him down.

In his previous fights, it took Sonnen 70 seconds to take Anderson Silva down at UFC 117, 75 seconds to get Brian Stann to the mat at UFC 136, 7 seconds to briefly take Michael Bisping to the ground at UFC on FOX 2, and a stunning 4 seconds to get Silva to the mat in their rematch at UFC 148. From top position Sonnen is relentless with his ground and pound, and recently even showcasing a submission game against Brian Stann. His physicality in the Octagon has never been in doubt. Sonnen knows what he wants to do and he is very aware of how to do it. The big question that has always dogged Chael is his mental game. Of the challenger’s 12 losses 8 have come by submission, and 4 of those have been by triangle choke. With the exception of the Demian Maia fight, which I will come to later, those submissions have been pulled while Sonnen was in top control. Now, losing a couple of times to submissions bears no grounds to start bad mouthing a fighters mental capacity to win a fight, but when the number of submissions makes up 75% of your losses, and the majority of them have come while you were in a dominant position begs questions to be asked, which Jones will be happy to oblige.

This therefore brings us on to the champion. Jon Jones has dismantled every opponent he has faced inside the Octagon. Even in his sole career defeat he was dominating Matt Hamill before he was disqualified for using 12 to 6 elbows. His 5 most recent wins have come against 5 former UFC Light-Heavyweight Champions, including Shogun Rua, Rampage Jackson, Lyoto Machida, Rashad Evans and Vitor Belfort; a who’s who of the light heavyweight division. Against Sonnen he is going to have to prove his wrestling pedigree if anything else. Jones may take a page out of UFC welterweight Demian Maia’s book. Maia fought and defeated Sonnen at middleweight back in 2009, where he used double underhooks and a trip to take Sonnen down into mount before rolling into a triangle which forced Sonnen to tap. The vast majority of Jones takedowns in the UFC have come from similar styled trips which will likely prove useful against Sonnen, should the champion find himself forced into inevitably clinching with the challenger. However, Jones’ highly unorthodox striking will probably be the winning factor in this fight. Jones will likely try to keep Sonnen at range with the oblique kick to the knee he is so fond of, using that to set up his seemingly bottomless battery of kicks, punches and elbows.

It would not surprise me in the least if Sonnen manages to win the first round of this fight. His power wrestling may take Jones somewhat by surprise in the first, but it will not take the champion long to adjust before he is able to take control and finish Sonnen any time after the first round.

While the legitimacy of the origin and motives behind this fight may be in question, the reality of it does pose some genuinely intriguing questions. Even though Jones is thoroughly expected to emerge the champion, at the very least he will have been given a stern test in all things wrestling before the night is through.

Personal Takes

Fraser Ryan – In a realistic world, this will not end well for Sonnen. Jones’ diverse striking arsenal mixed with his defensive wrestling should be enough to snuff out Chael’s wrestling and ground and pound heavy offence, making for a rough night for the American Gangster from West Linn.

Paul Anderson – All things considered I cant see the title changing hands tonight. Sonnen will bring the fight to Jones and may even land a few strikes from his southpaw stance. In the end though Jones will gain his composure, find his timings and overpower the “bad guy” and finish him with a sumbission sometime in the third